Post by DopplerEffect on Jan 27, 2009 18:53:05 GMT -5
Meteorologist Mark Molnar @ 448PM EST...
***Winter Storm Warning from 10PM This evening til 10PM Wed Eve***
Not an easy call as I am writing this, am battling the computer model data verses historical trends of this winter. The model guideance is trending the low further north, which should cut down on total snowfall accumulation but bump up the ice accumulations a bit more.
Don't forget to visit my newly updated internet Weather website http://doppler. scienceontheweb. net for further and more detailed updates.
An area of low pressure along a stationary front in the Ohio valley will move northeast tonight into Wed Morning. The stationary front currently stretches from the lower Ohio Valley through central PA into northern New Jersey. This low will move along it, pushing a shield of snow after midnight from southwest to northeast to encompass the entire region by daybreak. An average of 1 to 2 inches will fall by daybreak making the roads snow covered and slick for the morning commute. Snow will continue during the late morning hours across the twin tiers, where an additional 4 to 6 inches is likely across the southern tier of NY before changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain, where up to a Quarter inch of ice accretion is likely. In northeast PA, this changeover will occur much quicker after only 2 to 4 inches of snow but up to a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice.
With new model guidance in, it appears what I have been fearing for a few days is holding true. The low trend solution is further north. However the models are not pushing that warm layer of air in the mid levels into NY. Am a bit concerned about this because the trend this winter has been for low pressures moving across Central PA to bring in enough warm into NE PA and southern Tier of NY to promote a changeover to ice pellets and freezing rain. Yet the NAM and GFS computer model guideance ensembles don't hint at any ice pellets in the Binghamton area at all during the day on Wednesday. Another problem is the models are a bit on the high side for snowfall accumulations. both the NAM and GFS models are outputting 1.00 to 1.50 inches of liquid equivalent, which given the ratio to snow, assumuing an average snow ratio of 15:1, would insinuate snowfall accumulations of 9 to 14 inches. This is a bit much, and am not buying that at this time.
So..... what am I to do. Am going to split the difference and go with the following.....
Southern Tier of NY..... 5 to 7 inches with a Quarter inch of ice accretion
Northeast Pennsylvania....3 to 5 inches snow with Quarter to Half Inch ice accretion.
Wyoming Valley of PA........1 to 3 inches of snow followed by Three Quarters to One and One Quarter Inch of Ice accretion.
Finger lakes Region and Western Mowawk Valley...... 7 to 11 inches of snow.
The official forecast for Southern Tier of NY....
***Winter Storm Warning from 10PM this evening to 10PM Wed Eve***
Tonight...Snow developing after 130 AM....Low around 22. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches by dawn. Chance of snow 100 Percent.
Wednesday....Snow...changing to sleet and freezing rain from 1PM to to 6PM with a Quarter inch of ice accretion. Before the changeover, 4 to 6 inches of snow. High near 31, northeast wind around 15mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent.
Wednesday night.....any mixed precipitation changing back to snow showers with less than 1 inch of additional snowfall accumulation. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
Stay tuned for further updates...
Don't forget to visit my newly updated internet Weather website http://doppler. scienceontheweb. net for further and more detailed updates.
***Winter Storm Warning from 10PM This evening til 10PM Wed Eve***
Not an easy call as I am writing this, am battling the computer model data verses historical trends of this winter. The model guideance is trending the low further north, which should cut down on total snowfall accumulation but bump up the ice accumulations a bit more.
Don't forget to visit my newly updated internet Weather website http://doppler. scienceontheweb. net for further and more detailed updates.
An area of low pressure along a stationary front in the Ohio valley will move northeast tonight into Wed Morning. The stationary front currently stretches from the lower Ohio Valley through central PA into northern New Jersey. This low will move along it, pushing a shield of snow after midnight from southwest to northeast to encompass the entire region by daybreak. An average of 1 to 2 inches will fall by daybreak making the roads snow covered and slick for the morning commute. Snow will continue during the late morning hours across the twin tiers, where an additional 4 to 6 inches is likely across the southern tier of NY before changing over to a period of sleet and freezing rain, where up to a Quarter inch of ice accretion is likely. In northeast PA, this changeover will occur much quicker after only 2 to 4 inches of snow but up to a half inch to three quarters of an inch of ice.
With new model guidance in, it appears what I have been fearing for a few days is holding true. The low trend solution is further north. However the models are not pushing that warm layer of air in the mid levels into NY. Am a bit concerned about this because the trend this winter has been for low pressures moving across Central PA to bring in enough warm into NE PA and southern Tier of NY to promote a changeover to ice pellets and freezing rain. Yet the NAM and GFS computer model guideance ensembles don't hint at any ice pellets in the Binghamton area at all during the day on Wednesday. Another problem is the models are a bit on the high side for snowfall accumulations. both the NAM and GFS models are outputting 1.00 to 1.50 inches of liquid equivalent, which given the ratio to snow, assumuing an average snow ratio of 15:1, would insinuate snowfall accumulations of 9 to 14 inches. This is a bit much, and am not buying that at this time.
So..... what am I to do. Am going to split the difference and go with the following.....
Southern Tier of NY..... 5 to 7 inches with a Quarter inch of ice accretion
Northeast Pennsylvania....3 to 5 inches snow with Quarter to Half Inch ice accretion.
Wyoming Valley of PA........1 to 3 inches of snow followed by Three Quarters to One and One Quarter Inch of Ice accretion.
Finger lakes Region and Western Mowawk Valley...... 7 to 11 inches of snow.
The official forecast for Southern Tier of NY....
***Winter Storm Warning from 10PM this evening to 10PM Wed Eve***
Tonight...Snow developing after 130 AM....Low around 22. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches by dawn. Chance of snow 100 Percent.
Wednesday....Snow...changing to sleet and freezing rain from 1PM to to 6PM with a Quarter inch of ice accretion. Before the changeover, 4 to 6 inches of snow. High near 31, northeast wind around 15mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent.
Wednesday night.....any mixed precipitation changing back to snow showers with less than 1 inch of additional snowfall accumulation. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
Stay tuned for further updates...
Don't forget to visit my newly updated internet Weather website http://doppler. scienceontheweb. net for further and more detailed updates.